The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. army test and evaluation command. Part III: Forecasting with secondary-applications models

Output from the Army Test and Evaluation Command's Four-Dimensional Weather System's mesoscale model is used to drive secondary-applications models to produce forecasts of quantities of importance for daily decision making at U.S. Army test ranges. Examples of three specific applications - a sound propagation model, a missile trajectory model, and a transport and diffusion model—are given, along with accuracy assessments using cases in which observational data are available for verification. Ensembles of application model forecasts are used to derive probabilities of exceedance of quantities that can be used to help range test directors to make test go–no-go decisions. The ensembles can be based on multiple meteorological forecast runs or on spatial ensembles derived from different soundings extracted from a single meteorological forecast. In most cases, the accuracies of the secondary-application forecasts are sufficient to meet operational needs at the test ranges.

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Copyright 2008 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.
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Author Sharman, R.
Liu, Y.
Sheu, Rong-Shyang
Rife, Daran
Warner, Thomas
Bowers, James
Clough, Charles
Ellison, Edward
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2008-04-01T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:39:11.113266
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:6168
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Sharman, R., Liu, Y., Sheu, Rong-Shyang, Rife, Daran, Warner, Thomas, Bowers, James, Clough, Charles, Ellison, Edward. (2008). The operational mesogamma-scale analysis and forecast system of the U.S. army test and evaluation command. Part III: Forecasting with secondary-applications models. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7f47p9h. Accessed 19 June 2025.

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