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Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its...
Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme heat events. Ecological responses to extreme heat will depend on vegetation physiology and thermal tolerance....- publication PDF
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Solar energetic-particle-associated Coronal Mass Ejections observed by the...
We report on the first comprehensive study of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with similar to 25 MeV solar energetic-proton (SEP) events in 1980 - 2013 observed in...- publication PDF
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Impacts of AMOC Collapse on Monsoon Rainfall: A Multi‐Model Comparison
A collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would have substantial impacts on global precipitation patterns, especially in the vulnerable tropical...- publication PDF
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A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part II: Evaluation of...
The simulation of major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) in six stratosphere-resolving general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. The GCMs are compared to a...- publication PDF
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Troposphere–stratosphere-integrated bromine monoxide (BrO) profile retrieval...
Abstract. Bromine monoxide (BrO) is relevant to atmospheric oxidative capacity, affecting the lifetime of greenhouse gases (i.e., methane, dimethylsulfide) and mercury...- publication PDF
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Comparison of urban air quality simulations during the KORUS-AQ campaign...
Model intercomparison studies often report a large spread in simulation results, but quantifying the causes of these differences is hindered by the fact that several processes...- publication PDF
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A framework for conducting and communicating probabilistic wildland fire forecasts
Fire models predict fire behavior and effects. However, there is a need to know how confident users can be in forecasts. This work developed a probabilistic methodology based on...- publication PDF
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A new reference-quality precipitation gauge wind shield
Gauge-based precipitation measurements suffer from undercatch due to the effects of wind, with solid-precipitation measurements especially susceptible to such errors. When it is...- publication PDF
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Arctic sea ice extent plummets in 2007
Arctic sea ice declined rapidly to unprecedented low extents in the summer of 2007, raising concern that the Arctic may be on the verge of a fundamental transition toward a...- publication PDF
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Drivers of snowfall accumulation in the Central Idaho Mountains using...
The western United States region, an economic and agricultural powerhouse, is highly dependent on winter snowpack from the mountain west. Coupled with increasing water and...- publication PDF
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How flood hazards in a warming climate could be amplified by changes in...
Prior research on climate change impacts on flooding has primarily focused on changes in extreme rainfall magnitudes, often neglecting snow processes and spatiotemporal storm...- publication PDF
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Detection of superrefraction at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer...
Superrefraction at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer introduces problems for assimilation of radio occultation data in weather models. A method of detection of...- publication PDF
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Metadata tensions: A case study of library principles vs. everyday...
Data sharing requirements and mandates are becoming more common, and many institutions are investigating data curation methods. Metadata are a critical component to any...- publication PDF
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Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State affects the response of the Atlantic...
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s...- publication PDF
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NSF NCAR Earth System Science and Technology Hubs (NESTs) Phase I Report
Over the past three years, the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) has been exploring the concept of NSF NCAR Earth System...- publication PDF
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Projected changes in rainfall extremes over West African cities under...
We analyze long-term extreme events in daily precipitation for the period of 1950–2005 and future projections from 2006 to 2100 based on representative concentration...- publication PDF
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Identifying and categorizing bias in AI/ML for Earth sciences
Artificial intelligence (AI) can be used to improve performance across a wide range of Earth system prediction tasks. As with any application of AI, it is important for AI to be...- publication PDF
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Long-term variability in Saharan dust transport and its link to North...
An understanding of the atmospheric distribution of Saharan dust is crucial for understanding many Earth-system processes. We demonstrate here a model simulation indicating that...- publication PDF
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Growing convergence research: Coproducing climate projections to inform...
We apply a convergence research approach to the urgent need for proactive management of long-term risk associated with wildfire in the United States. In this work we define...- publication PDF
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Sudden reduction of Antarctic sea ice despite cooling after nuclear war
A large-scale nuclear war could inject massive amounts of soot into the stratosphere, triggering rapid global climate change. In climate model simulations of nuclear war, global...- publication PDF
