Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150‐year, and longer simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (>= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO(2)simulations with shorter (150- and 300-year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and slab ocean models (SOMs). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% +/- 13%) and long (-14% +/- 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% +/- 14%) and long (-8% +/- 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% +/- 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation U.S. models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6 degrees C to 5.3 degrees C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2 degrees C to 7.0 degrees C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

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Author Dunne, John P.
Winton, Michael
Bacmeister, Julio
Danabasoglu, Gokhan
Gettelman, Andrew
Golaz, Jean‐Christophe
Hannay, Cecile
Schmidt, Gavin A.
Krasting, John P.
Leung, L. Ruby
Nazarenko, Larissa
Sentman, Lori T.
Stouffer, Ronald J.
Wolfe, Jonathan D.
Publisher UCAR/NCAR - Library
Publication Date 2020-08-28T00:00:00
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) Not Assigned
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Topic Category geoscientificInformation
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Metadata Date 2023-08-18T18:15:37.254773
Metadata Record Identifier edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23628
Metadata Language eng; USA
Suggested Citation Dunne, John P., Winton, Michael, Bacmeister, Julio, Danabasoglu, Gokhan, Gettelman, Andrew, Golaz, Jean‐Christophe, Hannay, Cecile, Schmidt, Gavin A., Krasting, John P., Leung, L. Ruby, Nazarenko, Larissa, Sentman, Lori T., Stouffer, Ronald J., Wolfe, Jonathan D.. (2020). Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150‐year, and longer simulations. UCAR/NCAR - Library. http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7gm8bkg. Accessed 25 April 2025.

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