Meta-analysis of larval bivalve growth in response to ocean acidification and its application to sea scallop larval dispersal in the Mid-Atlantic Bight

Ocean acidification, caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and coastal physical, biological, and chemical processes, is an ongoing threat to carbonate-utilizing organisms living in productive coastal shelves. Bivalves exposed to acidification have shown reduced growth, reproduction, and metabolic processes, with larval stages exhibiting the greatest susceptibility. Here, we compile results from published studies on larval bivalve growth responses to acidification to estimate a relationship between larval growth and seawater aragonite saturation state. We then apply this relationship to a larval dispersal individual-based model for Atlantic sea scallops ( Placopecten magellanicus ), an economically vital species in the Mid-Atlantic Bight that is historically under-studied in acidification research. To date, there have been no published studies on sea scallop larval response to ocean acidification. Model simulations allowed the identification of potential impacts of acidification on scallop success in the region. Results show that larval sea scallops that are sensitive to ocean acidification had a 17% lower settlement success rate and over 50% reduction in larval passage between major Mid Atlantic Bight fisheries habitats than those that are not sensitive to acidification. Additionally, temperature and ocean acidification interact as drivers of larval success, with aragonite saturation states > 3.0 compensating for temperature-induced mortality (> 19 ˚C) in some cases. This balance between drivers influences larval settlement success across spatial and interannual scales in the Mid Atlantic Bight.