Identification

Title

Numerical forecast and analysis of a tropical-like cyclone in the Ionian Sea

Abstract

A forecasting system has been implemented for operational weather prediction over southern Italy in the framework of the RISKMED (INTERREG IIIB) project, which aims at weather-risk reduction in the central and eastern Mediterranean area. The system comprises two different regional forecasting chains, one based on BOLAM and MOLOCH models, the second based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 26 September 2006, a subsynoptic-scale vortex developed over the Mediterranean Sea and affected south-eastern Italy. The cyclone was documented by radar reflectivity maps, Meteosat Second Generation satellite images and surface stations data. The observational analysis showed that the cyclone possessed the typical characteristics of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. All the limited-area models employed in RISKMED were able to properly forecast the formation of the small-scale vortex, although with differences in intensity, trajectory and evolution. The predictability of the event has been evaluated employing a multi-model, multi-analysis approach. The simulation results show strong sensitivity to the specification of the initial and boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments were performed in order to analyse the mechanisms responsible for the development and the maintenance of the cyclone over the sea. The life cycle of the vortex turned out to be characterized by different phases: the orographic cyclogenesis on the lee side of the Atlas Mountains; the initial phase of development, characterised by the critical role played by the surface heat fluxes; the transition to a tropical-like cyclone mainly as a consequence of the latent-heat release associated with strong convective activity over the Ionian Sea; finally, the maintenance of the vortex strength due to both the surface fluxes and the release of latent heat.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77082gf

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2009-04-03T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact