edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23853 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T15:04:15.181980 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vx0kt0 A method for probability matching based on the ensemble maximum for quantitative precipitation forecasts 2020-08-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vx0kt0 https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-20-0003.1 Qiao, Xiaoshi author Wang, Shizhang author Schwartz, Craig S. author Liu, Zhiquan author Min, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A probability matching (PM) product using the ensemble maximum (EnMax) as the basis for spatial reassignment was developed. This PM product was called the PM max and its localized version was called the local PM (LPM) max. Both products were generated from a 10-member ensemble with 3-km horizontal grid spacing and evaluated over 364 36-h forecasts in terms of the fractions skill score. Performances of the PM max and LPM max were compared to those of the traditional PM mean and LPM mean, which both used the ensemble mean (EnMean) as the basis for spatial reassignment. Compared to observations, the PM max typically outperformed the PM mean for precipitation rates >= 5mm h(-1) ; this improvement was related to the EnMax, which had better spatial placement than the EnMean for heavy precipitation. However, the PM mean produced better forecasts than the PM max for lighter precipitation. It appears that the global reassignment used to produce the PM max was responsible for its poorer performance relative to the PM mean at light precipitation rates, as the LPM max was more skillful than the LPM mean at all thresholds. These results suggest promise for PM products based on the EnMax, especially for rare events and ensembles with insufficient spread. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2020 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation