Identification

Title

Subseasonal potential predictability of horizontal water vapor transport and precipitation extremes in the North Pacific

Abstract

Accurate forecasts of weather conditions have the potential to mitigate the social and economic damages they cause. To make informed decisions based on forecasts, it is important to determine the extent to which they could be skillful. This study focuses on subseasonal forecasts out to a lead time of four weeks. We examine the differences between the potential predictability, which is computed under the assumption of a " perfect model, " of integrated vapor transport (IVT) and precipitation under extreme conditions in subseasonal forecasts across the northeast Paci fi c. Our results demonstrate signi fi cant forecast skill of extreme IVT and precipitation events (exceeding the 90th percentile) into week 4 for speci fi c areas, particularly when anomalously wet conditions are observed in the true model state. This forecast skill during weeks 3 and 4 is closely associated with a zonal extension of the North Paci fi c jet. These fi ndings of the source of skillful subseasonal forecasts over the U.S. West Coast could have implications for water management in these regions susceptible to drought and fl ooding extremes. Additionally, they may offer valuable insights for governments and industries on the U.S. West Coast seeking to make informed decisions based on extended weather prediction.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7dn4987

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-06-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact