Identification

Title

Subseasonal Week 3-5 Surface Air Temperature Prediction During Boreal Wintertime in a GFDL Model

Abstract

With a Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) coupled model, the subseasonal prediction of wintertime (December-February) surface air temperature (SAT) is investigated through the analysis of 11-year hindcasts. Significant subseasonal week 3-5 correlation skill exists over a large portion of the global land domain, and the predictability originates primarily from the eight most predictable SAT modes. The first three modes, identified as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, the North Atlantic Oscillation mode, and the Eurasia Meridional Dipole mode, can be skillfully predicted more than 5weeks in advance. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Eurasia Meridional Dipole modes are strongly correlated with the initial stratospheric polar vortex strength, highlighting the role of stratosphere in subseasonal prediction. Interestingly, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is not essential for the subseasonal land SAT prediction in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. The spatial correlation skill exhibits considerable intraseasonal and interannual fluctuations, indicative of the importance to identify the time window of opportunity for subseasonal prediction.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7kp8546

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-01-08T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact