edu.ucar.opensky::technotes:538 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:48:48.112877 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vd713f Metrics for Evaluation of Solar Energy Forecasts 2016-06-14T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7vd713f https://doi.org/10.5065/D6RX99GG Jensen, Tara L. author Fowler Smith, Tressa L. author Brown, Barbara G. author Lazo, Jeffrey K. author Haupt, Sue Ellen author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher This technical note summarizes metrics that have been defined to assess the quality of forecasts of solar irradiance and solar power production forecasting. A set of six base metrics is proposed to meet the needs of users of solar power forecasts. Four of these metrics-Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Square Error, Distribution of Forecast Errors, and Categorical Statistics—provide statistical insights on overall forecast performance and aid in the comparison of different forecast models or to validate a single forecast model output against actual values. Two remaining base metrics translate forecast performance to economic value that will provide insights into the benefits realized with improved forecast accuracy. These six metrics provide a starting point for evaluation of the accuracy, precision, and value of solar forecasts. A set of enhanced metrics is also proposed to provide more detailed insights into forecast performance. Each proposed metric is defined with emphasis on the insight provided by the metric, its calculation process described, and its application illustrated with an example of a use case. Similar metrics are grouped together. Where possible, less technical metrics are described first and more difficult/more technical metrics are presented later. The base and enhanced metrics and their application are described in this report. A summary of discussions with stakeholders and guidelines for application of the metrics are presented in the appendices. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Turbulence Solar irradiance Solar energy production/use Weather research/forecast models theme U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Change Master Directory GCMD 2021-09-17 revision 11.2 NASA Global Change Master Directory originator Valids List: Science and Services Keywords Copyright 2016 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation