edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21572 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T16:01:59.480976 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7zs3071 Toward predicting changes in the land monsoon rainfall a decade in advance 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7zs3071 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0521.1 Wang, B. author Li, J. author Cane, M. A. author Liu, J. author Webster, P. J. author Xiang, Baoqiang author Kim, H. author Cao, J. author Ha, K. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Predictions of changes of the land monsoon rainfall (LMR) in the coming decades are of vital importance for successful sustainable economic development. Current dynamic models, though, have shown little skill in the decadal prediction of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) LMR(NHLMR). The physical basis and predictability for such predictions remain largely unexplored. Decadal change of the NHLMR reflects changes in the total NH continental precipitation, tropical general circulation, and regional land monsoon rainfall over northern Africa, India, East Asia, and North America. Using observations from 1901 to 2014 and numerical experiments, it is shown that the decadal variability of the NHLMR is rooted primarily in (i) the north-south hemispheric thermal contrast in the Atlantic-Indian Ocean sector measured by the North Atlantic-south Indian Ocean dipole (NAID) sea surface temperature (SST) index and (ii) an east-west thermal contrast in the Pacific measured by an extended El Nino-Southern Oscillation (XEN) index. Results from a 500-yr preindustrial control experiment demonstrate that the leading mode of decadal NHLMR and the associated NAID and XEN SST anomalies may be largely an internal mode of Earth's climate system, although possibly modified by natural and anthropogenic external forcing. A 51-yr, independent forward-rolling decadal hindcast was made with a hybrid dynamic conceptual model and using the NAID index predicted by a multiclimate model ensemble. The results demonstrate that the decadal changes in the NHLMR can be predicted approximately a decade in advance with significant skills, opening a promising way forward for decadal predictions of regional land monsoon rainfall worldwide. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2018 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation