Identification

Title

On the observed trends and changes in global sea surface temperature and air-sea heat fluxes (1984-2006)

Abstract

Global satellite observations show the sea surface temperature (SST) increasing since the 1970s in all ocean basins, while the net air–sea heat flux Q decreases. Over the period 1984-2006 the global changes are 0.28°C in SST and -9.1 W m⁻² in Q, giving an effective air-sea coupling coefficient of -32 W m⁻² °C⁻¹. The global response in Q expected from SST alone is determined to be -12.9 W m⁻², and the global distribution of the associated coupling coefficient is shown. Typically, about one-half (6.8 W m⁻²) of this SST effect on heat flux is compensated by changes in the overlying near-surface atmosphere. Slab Ocean Models (SOMs) assume that ocean heating processes do not change from year to year so that a constant annual heat flux would maintain a linear trend in annual SST. However, the necessary 6.1 W m⁻² increase is not found in the downwelling longwave and shortwave fluxes, which combined show a -3 W m⁻² decrease. The SOM assumptions are revisited to determine the most likely source of the inconsistency with observations of (-12.9 + 6.8 - 3) = -9.1 W m⁻². The indirect inference is that diminished ocean cooling due to vertical ocean processes played an important role in sustaining the observed positive trend in global SST from 1984 through 2006, despite the decrease in global surface heat flux. A similar situation is found in the individual basins, though magnitudes differ. A conclusion is that natural variability, rather than long-term climate change, dominates the SST and heat flux changes over this 23-yr period. On shorter time scales the relationship between SST and heat flux exhibits a variety of behaviors.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7g44r2c

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

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Text

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title

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reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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Temporal reference

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End position

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date type

publication

effective date

2012-09-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2012 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

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