Identification

Title

Validation of mountain precipitation forecasts from the convection-permitting NCAR ensemble and operational forecast systems over the Western United States

Abstract

Convection-permitting ensembles can capture the large spatial variability and quantify the inherent uncertainty of precipitation in areas of complex terrain; however, such systems remain largely untested over the western United States. In this study, we assess the capabilities of deterministic and probabilistic cool-season quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) produced by the 10-member, convection-permitting (3-km horizontal grid spacing) NCAR Ensemble using observations collected by SNOTEL stations at mountain locations across the western United States and precipitation analyses from PRISM. We also examine the performance of operational forecast systems run by NCEP including the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, the NAM forecast system with a 3-km continental United States (CONUS) nest, GFS, and the Short-Range Ensemble Forecast system (SREF). Overall, we find that higher-resolution models, such as the HRRR, NAM-3km CONUS nest, and an individual member of the NCAR Ensemble, are more deterministically skillful than coarser models, especially over the narrow interior ranges of the western United States, likely because they better resolve topography and thus better simulate orographic precipitation. The 10-member NCAR Ensemble is also more probabilistically skillful than 13-member subensembles composed of each SREF dynamical core, but less probabilistically skillful than the full 26-member SREF, as a result of insufficient spread. These results should help guide future short-range model development and inform forecasters about the capabilities and limitations of several widely used deterministic and probabilistic modeling systems over the western United States.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7hx1ggj

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-06-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact