Identification

Title

Predictability of the Atlantic overturning circulation and associated surface patterns in two CCSM3 climate change ensemble experiments

Abstract

Predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and associated oceanic and atmospheric fields on decadal time scales in Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) at T42 resolution is quantified with a 700-year control run and two 40-member "perfect model" climate change experiments. After taking into account both the mean and spread about the mean of the forecast distributions, and allowing for the possibility of time evolving modes, the natural variability of the AMOC is found predictable for about a decade; beyond that range the forced predictability resulting from greenhouse gas forcing becomes dominant. The upper-500m temperature in the North Atlantic is even more predictable than the AMOC by several years. This predictability is associated with subsurface and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that propagate in an anticlockwise direction along the subpolar gyre and which tend to be prominent during the 10 years following peaks in the amplitude of AMOC anomalies. Predictability in the North Atlantic SST mainly resides in the ensemble mean signals after 3-4 forecast years. Analysis suggests that in CCSM3 the subpolar gyre SST anomalies associated with the AMOC variability can influence the atmosphere and produce surface climate predictability that goes beyond the ENSO time scale. However, the resulting initial-value predictability in the atmosphere is very weak.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d77h1m43

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

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Classification of spatial data and services

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geoscientificInformation

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Text

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title

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reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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date type

publication

effective date

2011-12-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2011 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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Responsible organisations

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contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

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