Identification

Title

Multi-season evaluation of hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFS) quantitative precipitation forecasts

Abstract

Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from numerical weather prediction models need systematic verification to enable rigorous assessment and informed use, as well as model improvements. The United States (US) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently made a major update to its regional tropical cyclone modeling capabilities, introducing two new operational configurations of the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS). NOAA performed multi-season retrospective forecasts using the HAFS configurations during the period that the Hurricane Weather and Forecasting (HWRF) model was operational, which was used to assess HAFS performance for key tropical cyclone forecast metrics. However, systematic QPF verification was not an integral part of the initial evaluation. The first systematic QPF evaluation of the operational HAFS version 1 configurations is presented here for the 2021 and 2022 season re-forecasts as well as the first HAFS operational season, 2023. A suite of techniques, tools, and metrics within the enhanced Model Evaluation Tools (METplus) software suite are used. This includes shifting forecasts to mitigate track errors, regridding model and observed fields to a storm relative coordinate system, as well as object oriented verification. The HAFS configurations have better performance than HWRF for equitable threat score (ETS), but larger over forecast biases than HWRF. Storm relative and object oriented verification show the HAFS configurations have larger precipitation areas and less intense precipitation near the TC center as compared to observations and HWRF. HAFS QPF performance decreased for the 2023 season, but the general spatial patterns of the model QPF were very similar to 2021-2022.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7959nv4

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-11-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact