Identification

Title

The Colorado River Basin Operational Prediction Testbed: A framework for evaluating streamflow forecasts and reservoir operations

Abstract

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) plays a central management role in the Colorado River Basin (CRB), with an increasing focus on meeting the needs of stakeholders during the current drought. One aspect of this role involves generating five-year projections of reservoir operating conditions in the federal multi-reservoir system. These projections are the basis for estimating the probability of shortage conditions, which are relied on by stakeholders, and are particularly important during drought. Currently, Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts drive Reclamation's Colorado River Mid-term Modeling System to produce probabilistic reservoir projections to be used in risk-based analysis and decision support for the first two years of the outlook period. The lack of significant forecast skill beyond the first year motivates interest in alternative forecasting approaches. The CRB Operational Prediction Testbed was created to provide a quantitative and consistent framework for assessing the skill of streamflow forecasts and their impact on associated reservoir system projections. Reservoir system projections are evaluated by analyzing Lakes Powell and Mead operations, including projected pool elevation and operating tiers. In an initial application of this testbed, ESP forecasts were compared to experimental streamflow forecasts to assess their skill impact on two-year reservoir projections, which are critical information for managing drought.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d72j6gp9

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-10-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact