Identification

Title

Constraining ensemble forecasts of discrete convective initiation with surface observations

Abstract

Predicting when and where individual convective storms will develop remains an elusive challenge. Previous studies have suggested that surface observations can capture convective-scale features relevant to the convective initiation (CI) process, and new surface observing platforms such as crowdsourcing could significantly increase surface observation density in the near future. Here, a series of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed to determine the required density of surface observations necessary to constrain storm-scale forecasts of CI. Ensemble simulations of an environment where CI occurs are cycled hourly using the CM1 model while assimilating synthetic surface observations at varying densities. Skillful and reliable storm-scale forecasts of CI are produced when surface observations of at least 4-km-and particularly with 1-km-density are assimilated, but only for forecasts initiated within 1 h of CI. Time scales of forecast improvement in surface variables suggest that hourly cycling is at the upper limit for CI forecast improvement. In addition, the structure of the assimilation increments, ensemble calibration in these experiments, and challenges of convective-scale assimilation are discussed.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7kk9fbj

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2017-07-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact