Identification

Title

Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the CESM high-resolution decadal prediction system

Abstract

The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has far-reaching influences on climate as well as on local marine ecosystems. Thus, skillful multi-year to decadal prediction of the KE state and understanding sources of skill are valuable. Retrospective forecasts using the high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) show exceptional skill in predicting KE variability up to lead year 4, substantially higher than the skill found in a similarly configured low-resolution CESM. The higher skill is attained because the high-resolution system can more realistically simulate the westward Rossby wave propagation of initialized ocean anomalies in the central North Pacific and their expression within the sharp KE front, and does not suffer from spurious variability near Japan present in the low-resolution CESM that interferes with the incoming wave propagation. These results argue for the use of high-resolution models for future studies that aim to predict changes in western boundary current systems and associated biological fields.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7377drz

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-08-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact