Identification

Title

Steering flow sensitivity in forecast models for Hurricane Ian (2022)

Abstract

Hurricane Ian made landfall along Florida ' s west coast at 1905 UTC 28 September 2022 near the Fort Myers area as a high -impact storm. Here, we examine the potential link between track forecast errors near the time of landfall and errors in both the synoptic -scale upper -level fl ow and a shortwave moving within that fl ow. Five days before the actual landfall (0000 UTC 23 September), most model guidance indicated landfall would occur close to where Ian eventually came ashore. But by 0000 UTC 25 September, model forecasts were all forecasting landfall in the Florida Panhandle. One day later, the models again agreed with each other but for a landfall 100 - 200 km north of Tampa, Florida. By 0000 UTC 27 September, forecast models indicated landfall would occur near Tampa. Model forecasts continued shifting to the right and fi nally converged on Punta Gorda, Florida, as the landfall location, less than 24 h before landfall. In this short article, we hypothesize that the track of Ian depended on subtle interactions with an extratropical wave in the middle and upper atmosphere. Deterministic and ensemble model forecasts reveal that the interactions were very sensitive to the characteristics of this wave and the synoptic -scale fl ow in which the wave was embedded. A 1 - 2 -dam difference in the geopotential heights played a major role in whether Ian moved north into the Panhandle or toward the east, making landfall in central Florida.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7xk8kr9

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-05-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact