Identification

Title

Do multiâ€�model ensembles improve reconstruction skill in paleoclimate data assimilation?

Abstract

Reconstructing past climates remains a difficult task because pre-instrumental observational networks are composed of geographically sparse and noisy paleoclimate proxy records that require statistical techniques to inform complete climate fields. Traditionally, instrumental or climate model statistical relationships are used to spread information from proxy measurements to other locations and to other climate variables. Here ensembles drawn from single climate models and from combinations of multiple climate models are used to reconstruct temperature variability over the last millennium in idealized experiments. We find that reconstructions derived from multi-model ensembles produce lower error than reconstructions from single-model ensembles when reconstructing independent model and instrumental data. Specifically, we find the largest decreases in error over regions far from proxy locations that are often associated with large uncertainties in model physics, such as mid- and high-latitude ocean and sea-ice regions. Furthermore, we find that multi-model ensemble reconstructions outperform single-model reconstructions that use covariance localization. We propose that multi-model ensembles could be used to improve paleoclimate reconstructions in time periods beyond the last millennium and for climate variables other than air temperature, such as drought metrics or sea ice variables.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7gq725f

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-04-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact