edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21501 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T16:03:06.875642 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tf011x https://doi.org/10.5065/D6G73C3Q https Related Dataset #1 Catchment attributes for large-sample studies https://doi.org/10.5065/D6MW2F4D https Related Dataset #2 A large-sample watershed-scale hydrometeorological dataset for the contiguous USA Mapping (dis)agreement in hydrologic projections 2018-03-12T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tf011x https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-1775-2018 Melsen, L. A. author Addor, Nans author Mizukami, Naoki author Newman, Andrew J. author Torfs, P. J. J. F. author Clark, Martyn P. author Uijlenhoet, R. author Teuling, A. J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Hydrologic projections are of vital socioeconomic importance. However, they are also prone to uncertainty. In order to establish a meaningful range of storylines to support water managers in decision making, we need to reveal the relevant sources of uncertainty. Here, we systematically and extensively investigate uncertainty in hydrologic projections for 605 basins throughout the contiguous US. We show that in the majority of the basins, the sign of change in average annual runoff and discharge timing for the period 2070-2100 compared to 1985-2008 differs among combinations of climate models, hydrologic models, and parameters. Mapping the results revealed that different sources of uncertainty dominate in different regions. Hydrologic model induced uncertainty in the sign of change in mean runoff was related to snow processes and aridity, whereas uncertainty in both mean runoff and discharge timing induced by the climate models was related to disagreement among the models regarding the change in precipitation. Overall, disagreement on the sign of change was more widespread for the mean runoff than for the discharge timing. The results demonstrate the need to define a wide range of quantitative hydrologic storylines, including parameter, hydrologic model, and climate model forcing uncertainty, to support water resource planning. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2018 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation