edu.ucar.opensky::articles:21478 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T16:03:08.662055 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ft8ppq https://doi.org/10.4225/55/5a164b9179a9a https Related Dataset #1 Wigley-ParisPaperData.xls The Paris warming targets: Emissions requirements and sea level consequences 2018-03-12T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ft8ppq https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2119-5 Wigley, Tom M. L. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The Paris Agreement states that, relative to pre-industrial times, the increase in global average temperature should be kept to well below 2 A degrees C and efforts should be made to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 A degrees C. Emissions scenarios consistent with these targets are derived. For an eventual 2 A degrees C warming target, this could be achieved even if CO2 emissions remained positive. For a 1.5 A degrees C target, CO2 emissions could remain positive, but only if a substantial and long-lasting temperature overshoot is accepted. In both cases, a warming overshoot of 0.2 to 0.4 A degrees C appears unavoidable. If the allowable (or unavoidable) overshoot is small, then negative emissions are almost certainly required for the 1.5 A degrees C target, peaking at negative 1.3 GtC/year. In this scenario, temperature stabilization occurs, but cumulative emissions continue to increase, contrary to a common belief regarding the relationship between temperature and cumulative emissions. Changes to the Paris Agreement to accommodate the overshoot possibility are suggested. For sea level rise, tipping points that might lead to inevitable collapse of Antarctic ice sheets or shelves might be avoided for the 2 A degrees C target (for major ice shelves) or for the 1.5 A degrees C target for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Even with the 1.5 A degrees C target, however, sea level will continue to rise at a substantial rate for centuries. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2108 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation