Characterizing Internal Variability and Detecting Changes in Model and Computational Parameters in a Century-Long CESM Ensemble
Ensembles of climate model projections enable better quantifying intrinsic climate variability and the resulting uncertainty in projected climate. This work uses a 100-year ensemble of unforced simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) to quantify the impact of different hardware, software, and model parameter settings on the statistical properties of climate model output. The goal is to develop lightweight, computationally efficient methods of detecting statistically significant differences in marginal distributions, stationarity, and autocorrelation with only annually and globally averaged climate model outputs. We present a series of methods and data visualization techniques for this purpose, and show that changes in model and computational parameters can be detected even with highly reduced model output. Results can inform the design of ensembles, and the tests developed can help users quickly identify distributional differences and benchmark their model simulations against other known ensembles.
document
http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qz2fdt
eng
geoscientificInformation
Text
publication
2016-01-01T00:00:00Z
publication
2021-10-18T00:00:00Z
Copyright Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
None
OpenSky Support
UCAR/NCAR - Library
PO Box 3000
Boulder
80307-3000
name: homepage
pointOfContact
OpenSky Support
UCAR/NCAR - Library
PO Box 3000
Boulder
80307-3000
name: homepage
pointOfContact
2023-08-18T18:02:55.877328