edu.ucar.opensky::articles:17216 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T13:41:19.337861 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7542pv9 Multimodel assessment of the factors driving stratospheric ozone evolution over the 21st century 2010-12-22T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7542pv9 Oman, L. author Plummer, D. author Waugh, D. author Austin, J. author Scinocca, J. author Douglass, A. author Salawitch, R. author Canty, T. author Akiyoshi, H. author Bekki, S. author Braesike, P. author Butchart, N. author Chipperfield, M. author Cugnet, D. author Dhomse, S. author Eyring, V. author Frith, S. author Hardiman, S. author Kinnison, Douglas E. author Lamarque, Jean-François author Mancini, E. author Marchand, M. author Michou, M. author Morgenstern, O. author Nakamura, T. author Nielsen, J. author Olivié, D. author Pitari, G. author Pyle, J. author Rozanov, E. author Shepherd, T. author Shibata, K. author Stolarski, R. author Teyssèdre, H. author Tian, W. author Yamashita, Y. author Ziemke, J. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The evolution of stratospheric ozone from 1960 to 2100 is examined in simulations from 14 chemistry-climate models, driven by prescribed levels of halogens and greenhouse gases. There is general agreement among the models that total column ozone reached a minimum around year 2000 at all latitudes, projected to be followed by an increase over the first half of the 21st century. In the second half of the 21st century, ozone is projected to continue increasing, level off, or even decrease depending on the latitude. Separation into partial columns above and below 20 hPa reveals that these latitudinal differences are almost completely caused by differences in the model projections of ozone in the lower stratosphere. At all latitudes, upper stratospheric ozone increases throughout the 21st century and is projected to return to 1960 levels well before the end of the century, although there is a spread among models in the dates that ozone returns to specific historical values. We find decreasing halogens and declining upper atmospheric temperatures, driven by increasing greenhouse gases, contribute almost equally to increases in upper stratospheric ozone. In the tropical lower stratosphere, an increase in upwelling causes a steady decrease in ozone through the 21st century, and total column ozone does not return to 1960 levels in most of the models. In contrast, lower stratospheric and total column ozone in middle and high latitudes increases during the 21st century, returning to 1960 levels well before the end of the century in most models. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright 2010 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation