edu.ucar.opensky::articles:12905 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T03:42:40.523708 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7930v1r Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change 2013-07-11T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7930v1r https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005 Silva, R. author West, J. author Zhang, Y. author Anenberg, S. author Lamarque, Jean-François author Shindell, D. author Collins, W. author Dalsoren, S. author Faluvegi, G. author Folberth, G. author Horowitz, L. author Nagashima, T. author Naik, V. author Rumbold, S. author Skeie, R. author Sudo, K. author Takemura, T. author Bergmann, D. author Cameron-Smith, P. author Cionni, I. author Doherty, R. author Eyring, V. author Josse, B. author MacKenzie, I. author Plummer, D. author Righi, M. author Stevenson, D. author Strode, S. author Szopa, S. author Zeng, G. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry-climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration-response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470,000 (95% confidence interval, 140,000 to 900,000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions. Uncertainty in CRFs contributes more to overall uncertainty than the spread of model results. Mortality attributed to the effects of past climate change on air quality is considerably smaller than the global burden: 1500 (-20,000 to 27,000) deaths yr⁻¹ due to ozone and 2200 (-350,000 to 140,000) due to PM2.5. The small multi-model means are coincidental, as there are larger ranges of results for individual models, reflected in the large uncertainties, with some models suggesting that past climate change has reduced air pollution mortality. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2013 Authors. None eng geoscientificInformation