Identification

Title

Biases in the prediction of convective storm characteristics with a convection allowing ensemble

Abstract

The severity, duration, and spatial extent of thunderstorm impacts are related to convective storm mode. This study assesses the skill of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRR-E) and its deterministic counterpart (HRRRv4) at predicting convective mode and storm macrophysical properties using 35 convective events observed during the 2020 warm season across the eastern United States. Seven cases were selected from each of five subjectively determined convective organization modes: tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), quasi-linear convective systems, clusters, and cellular convection. These storm events were assessed using an object-based approach to identify convective storms and determine their individual size. Averaged across all 35 cases, both the HRRR-E and HRRRv4 predicted storm areas were generally larger than observed, with this bias being a function of storm lifetime and convective mode. Both modeling systems also underpredicted the rapid increase in storm counts during the initiation period, particularly for the smaller-scale storm modes. Interestingly, performance of the HRRRv4 differed from that of the HRRR-E, with the HRRRv4 generally having a larger bias in total storm area than the HRRR-E due to HRRRv4 predicting up to 66% more storm objects than the HRRR-E. The HRRR-E accurately predicted the convective mode 65% of the time, with complete misses being very rare (<5% of the time overall). However, an evaluation of rank histograms across all 35 cases revealed that the HRRR-E tended to be underdispersive when predicting storm size for all but the MCS mode.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7rb789d

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-01-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright 2022 American Meteorological Society.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2023-08-18T18:37:21.852639

Metadata language

eng; USA