edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18714 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:46:32.304799 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7cz38td The impact of the Southern Annular Mode on future changes in Southern Hemisphere rainfall 2016-07-16T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7cz38td https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069453 Lim, E. author Hendon, H. H. author Arblaster, Julie author Delage, F. author Nguyen, H. author Min, S. author Wheeler, M. C. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher A robust positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is projected for the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario, which results in rainfall decreases in the midlatitudes and increases in the high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). We find that this SAM trend also increases rainfall over the SH subtropics in austral summer but not in winter, leading to a pronounced wintertime poleward expansion of the subtropical dry zone. These dynamically driven rainfall changes by the SAM appear to oppose the thermodynamically driven projected rainfall changes in the SH subtropics and midlatitudes, whereas the two components reinforce each other in the high latitudes. However, we show that most climate models fall short in capturing the observed SAM component driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and associated rainfall in the austral warm seasons, which limits our confidence in quantifying the contribution of the SAM to projected rainfall changes. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2016 American Geophysical Union. None eng geoscientificInformation