Identification

Title

Predicting the geoeffectiveness of CMEs using machine learning

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most geoeffective space weather phenomena, being associated with large geomagnetic storms, and having the potential to cause disturbances to telecommunications, satellite network disruptions, and power grid damage and failures. Thus, considering these storms' potential effects on human activities, accurate forecasts of the geoeffectiveness of CMEs are paramount. This work focuses on experimenting with different machine-learning methods trained on white-light coronagraph data sets of close-to-Sun CMEs, to estimate whether such a newly erupting ejection has the potential to induce geomagnetic activity. We developed binary classification models using logistic regression, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machines, feed-forward artificial neural networks, and ensemble models. At this time, we limited our forecast to exclusively use solar onset parameters, to ensure extended warning times. We discuss the main challenges of this task, namely, the extreme imbalance between the number of geoeffective and ineffective events in our data set, along with their numerous similarities and the limited number of available variables. We show that even in such conditions adequate hit rates can be achieved with these models.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7qc07bt

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-08-04T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact