Identification

Title

Quantifying and visualizing severe thunderstorm motion uncertainty for improved decision support

Abstract

Forecasts and observations of thunderstorm motion are key components of severe thunderstorm communication and decision support for preparedness and protective behaviors, as all National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective watches and NWS warnings contain information about storm translational speed and direction of motion. The goal of this research was to quantify uncertainty in thunderstorm motion using the information contained in NWS watch and warning products. Analyzing severe thunderstorm and tornado watches and warnings from 2008 to 2020, we matched and compared forecasted storm motions given in NWS warnings with those given in SPC watches. Translational speed deviations between watches and warnings exhibited symmetry, with about one-third of warning speeds falling within ±2.5 m s −1 of forecasts. Directional deviations were also symmetrical, with one-third of warning directions within ±9° of forecasts. However, when stratified to account for translational speed, the comparisons revealed greater directional uncertainty for slower-moving storms. Temporal analysis revealed faster and rightward translations in warnings during the latter half of watch durations. Using the distributions of speed and directional deviations, we developed new visualizations to represent both mean storm motion vectors and associated uncertainty sectors, aiding the interpretation of motion uncertainties. Quantifiable storm motion uncertainty also can inform estimated ranges of storm arrival times, potentially enhancing NWS communication and decision support with key partners and a range of publics for safer outcomes during severe weather events.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7fb5780

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-12-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact