Identification

Title

The change in the ENSO teleconnection under a low global warming scenario and the uncertainty due to internal variability

Abstract

El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a main driver of climate variability worldwide, but the presence of atmospheric internal variability makes accurate assessments of its atmospheric teleconnections a challenge. Here, we use a multimodel large ensemble of simulations to investigate the ENSO teleconnection response to a low global warming scenario that represents Paris Agreement targets. The ensemble comprises five atmospheric general circulation models with two experiments (present-day and +2 degrees C) in which the same set of ENSO events is prescribed, which allows for quantification of the uncertainty in the ENSO response due to internal variability. In winter, the teleconnection during the positive ENSO phase features a strong negative anomaly in sea level pressure over the northeast Pacific (and vice versa for the negative phase); this anomaly shifts northeastward and strengthens in the warming experiment ensemble. At least 50-75 ENSO events are required to detect a significant shift or strengthening, emphasizing the need to adequately sample the internal variability to isolate the forced response of the ENSO teleconnection under a low warming scenario. Even more events may be needed if one includes other sources of uncertainty not considered in our experimental setup, such as changes in ENSO itself. Over North America, precipitation changes are generally more robust than temperature changes for the regions considered, despite large internal variability, and are shaped primarily by changes in atmospheric circulation. These results suggest that the observational period is likely too short for assessing changes in the ENSO teleconnection under Paris Agreement warming targets.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d79w0jqx

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-06-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact