Identification

Title

Enhancing sub-seasonal soil moisture forecasts through land initialization

Abstract

<div class="c-article-section" style="box-sizing:inherit;clear:both;" id="Abs1-section"><div class="c-article-section__content" style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-bottom:40px;padding-top:8px;" id="Abs1-content"><p style="box-sizing:inherit;margin-bottom:24px;margin-top:0px;overflow-wrap:break-word;word-break:break-word;">We assess the relative contributions of land, atmosphere, and oceanic initializations to the forecast skill of root zone soil moisture (SM) utilizing the Community Earth System Model version 2 Sub to Seasonal climate forecast experiments (CESM2-S2S). Using eight sensitivity experiments, we disentangle the individual impacts of these three components and their interactions on the forecast skill for the contiguous United States. The CESM2-S2S experiment, in which land states are initialized while atmosphere and ocean remain in their climatological states, contributes 91 ± 3% of the total sub-seasonal forecast skill across varying soil moisture conditions during summer and winter. Most SM predictability stems from the soil moisture memory effect. Additionally, land-atmosphere coupling contributes 50% of the land-driven soil moisture predictability. A comparative analysis of the CESM2-S2S SM forecast skills against two other climate models highlights the potential for enhancing soil moisture forecast accuracy by improving the representation of soil moisture-precipitation feedback.</p></div></div></section><section class="c-article-recommendations" style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;background-color:rgb(243, 243, 243);box-sizing:inherit;color:rgb(34, 34, 34);font-family:-apple-system, "system-ui", "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif;font-size:18px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:0px 0px 48px;orphans:2;padding:24px;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;" aria-labelledby="inline-recommendations" data-title="Inline Recommendations" data-track-component="inline-recommendations"> 

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7x63sbq

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-03-12T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

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Constraints related to access and use

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Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact