Identification

Title

Contrasting the use of single-realization versus ensemble-average atmospheric dispersion solutions for chemical and biological defense analyses

Abstract

Chemical and biological (CB) defense systems require significant testing and evaluation before they are deployed for real-time use. Because it is not feasible to evaluate these systems with open-air testing alone, researchers rely on numerical models to supplement the defense-system analysis process. These numerical models traditionally describe the statistical properties of CB-agent atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D). While the statistical representation of AT&D is appropriate to use in some CB defense analyses, it is not appropriate to use this class of dispersion model for all such analyses. Many of these defense-system analyses require AT&D models that are capable of simulating dispersion properties with very short time-averaging periods that more closely emulate a “single realization” of a contaminant or CB agent dispersing in a turbulent atmosphere. The latter class of AT&D models is superior to the former for performing CB-system analyses when one or more of the following factors are important in the analysis: high-frequency sampling of the contaminant, spatial and temporal correlations within the contaminant concentration field, and nonlinear operations performed on the contaminant concentration. This paper describes and contrasts these AT&D modeling tools and provides specific examples in which utilizing ensembles of single realizations of CB-agent AT&D is advantageous over using the statistical, “ensemble-average” representation of the agent AT&D. These examples demonstrate the importance of using an AT&D modeling tool that is appropriate for the analysis.

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document

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http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7xg9s3m

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Dataset language

eng

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Classification of spatial data and services

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geoscientificInformation

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title

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reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

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publication

effective date

2014-06-01T00:00:00Z

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Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be "fair use" under Section 107 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law (17 USC, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the Society's permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form on servers, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statements, requires written permission or license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policies, available from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or amspubs@ametsoc.org. Permission to place a copy of this work on this server has been provided by the AMS. The AMS does not guarantee that the copy provided here is an accurate copy of the published work.

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None

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contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

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pointOfContact

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