edu.ucar.opensky::articles:23870 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-25T06:40:50.502888 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7dv1p5c How does El Niño-Southern Oscillation change under global warming — A first look at CMIP6 2020-11-28T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7dv1p5c https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090640 Fredriksen, H. author Berner, Judith author Subramanian, A. C. author Capotondi, A. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The latest generation of coupled models, the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is used to study the changes in the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. For the four future scenarios studied, the sea surface temperature variability increases in most CMIP6 models, but to varying degrees. This increase is linked to a weakening of the east-west temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which is evident across all models. Just as in previous generations of climate models, we find that many characteristics of future ENSO remain uncertain. This includes changes in dominant time scale, extratropical teleconnection patterns, and amplitude of El Nino and La Nina events. For models with the strongest increase in future variability, the majority of the increase happens in the Eastern Pacific, where the strongest El Nino events usually occur. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. None eng geoscientificInformation