Identification

Title

Regional multiyear predictability of Antarctic sea ice in CESM2 and its implications for marine ecosystems

Abstract

Antarctic sea ice exhibits considerable regional variability that is influenced by ocean and atmospheric conditions. Previous studies have suggested that this variability may be predictable on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Here, we use initial-value predictability experiments of the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), paired with analysis of the CESM2 large ensemble, to further assess the inherent predictability in regional Antarctic sea ice conditions. As in previous studies, we find that Antarctic sea ice area predictability is high for several months after initialization. It is then lost when ice retreats, and predictability is regained in the following ice advance period. In our simulations, this process acts on multiyear time scales with little sensitivity to the seasonal initialization timing but has a strong regional dependence. Long-lived ocean temperature anomalies in the vicinity of the winter ice edge are the primary source of sea ice predictability. Different predictability characteristics occur across regions, depending on how these ocean temperature anomalies are advected relative to regional sea zones. Our results show that sea ice predictability can impart predictability to primary productivity in the Southern Ocean due to its impact on light availability. This has implications for the understanding and management of Southern Ocean marine ecosystems.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7862mv3

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-04-15T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact