Identification

Title

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Abstract

<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(31, 31, 31);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:ElsevierGulliver, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, STIXGeneral, "Cambria Math", "Lucida Sans Unicode", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Arial Unicode MS", serif, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin (<em style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(31, 31, 31);font-family:ElsevierGulliver, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, STIXGeneral, "Cambria Math", "Lucida Sans Unicode", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Arial Unicode MS", serif, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:0px;orphans:2;padding:0px;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">Aptenodytes forsteri<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(31, 31, 31);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:ElsevierGulliver, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, STIXGeneral, "Cambria Math", "Lucida Sans Unicode", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Arial Unicode MS", serif, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet <em style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;box-sizing:border-box;color:rgb(31, 31, 31);font-family:ElsevierGulliver, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, STIXGeneral, "Cambria Math", "Lucida Sans Unicode", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Arial Unicode MS", serif, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;margin:0px;orphans:2;padding:0px;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;">Endangered<span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width:0px;color:rgb(31, 31, 31);display:inline !important;float:none;font-family:ElsevierGulliver, Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, STIXGeneral, "Cambria Math", "Lucida Sans Unicode", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "Segoe UI Symbol", "Arial Unicode MS", serif, sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;font-variant-caps:normal;font-variant-ligatures:normal;font-weight:400;letter-spacing:normal;orphans:2;text-align:start;text-decoration-color:initial;text-decoration-style:initial;text-decoration-thickness:initial;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;widows:2;word-spacing:0px;"> status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7w09bb7

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-05-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact