Identification

Title

Interpretable models capture the complex relationship between climate indices and fire season intensity in maritime Southeast Asia

Abstract

There have been many extreme fire seasons in Maritime Southeast Asia (MSEA) over the last two decades. Fires, in turn, are a major driver of atmospheric carbon monoxide (CO) variability, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Here we attempt to maximize the amount of CO variability that can be explained during fire season in MSEA (defined as September through December) via human-interpretable statistical models that use only climate mode indices as predictor variables and are trained on data from 2001 to 2019. We expand upon previous work through the complexity at which we study the connections between climate mode indices and atmospheric CO (an indicator of fire intensity). Specifically, we present three modeling advancements. First, we analyze five different climate modes at a weekly timescale, increasing explained variability by 15% over models a monthly timescale. Second, we accommodate multiple lead times for each climate mode index, finding that some indices have very different effects on CO at different lead times. Finally, we model the interactions between climate mode indices at a weekly timescale, providing a framework for studying more complex interactions than previous work. Furthermore, we perform a stability analysis and show that our model for the MSEA region is robust, adding weight to the scientific interpretation of selected model terms. We believe the relationships quantified here provide new understanding of a significant mode of variability in MSEA, specific lead times for use in forecasts, and a method for evaluating climate mode-CO relationships in climate model output.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d77w6h0r

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-09-16T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact