Identification

Title

Economic and biophysical impacts on agriculture under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming

Abstract

The goal of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 degrees C, and possibly to 1.5 degrees C, emerged in the Paris Agreement, motivated by the belief that achieving these targets 'would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change'. Understanding the climate impacts of relatively low levels of warming, in particular whether there are substantial benefits to reducing emissions to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C, is important for informing climate policy, but such studies are scarce. Here we evaluate the difference in global biophysical and economic impacts related to agriculture between 1.5 degrees C-2 degrees C warming. Given the small difference in global average temperature, accounting for uncertainties is important, and we include key uncertainties in three main components of the analysis: climate system (regional climate variability), biophysical system (crop response to CO2 fertilization), and economic system (trade responsiveness). We are unable to meaningfully distinguish the regional agricultural impacts occurring with 1.5 degrees C warming from those occurring with 2 degrees C warming when accounting for these uncertainties. Under some assumptions 1.5 degrees C implies benefits relative to 2 degrees C, while under others it implies costs. Results are most sensitive to the uncertainty in the effect of CO2 fertilization on crop yield.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7wh2sz6

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-11-14T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact