edu.ucar.opensky::articles:43716 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T17:49:46.880819 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78k7fh7 https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/KXXHPW https Related Dataset #1 Replication Data for: Seasonal Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones using GFDL SPEAR and HiFLOR-S Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using GFDL SPEAR and HiFLOR-S 2025-05-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d78k7fh7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0356.1 Murakami, H. author Delworth, T. L. author Johnson, N. C. author Lu, Feiyu author McHugh, C. author Jia, L. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher The seasonal prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity is evaluated using the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR), a modeling system developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) for experimental real-time seasonal forecasts. Compared with previous GFDL seasonal prediction models, SPEAR demonstrates improved skill in predicting TC activity for the western North Pacific, while exhibiting comparable or slightly degraded skill for the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic. These changes in prediction skill do not always align with changes in prediction skill in large-scale variables, particularly over the North Atlantic. This study highlights that changes in the model&#8217;s response of TCs to large-scale variables, as well as the changes in the amplitude of interannual variations in TC genesis frequency, are crucial for the changes in TC prediction skill. Using the predicted sea surface temperatures from SPEAR as lower boundary conditions, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR-S) model was employed to predict intense TCs, demonstrating skillful predictions of major hurricanes that are comparable to the previous HiFLOR coupled model predictions. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication <span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright 2025 American Meteorological Society (AMS).</span> None eng geoscientificInformation