edu.ucar.opensky::articles:18891 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-26T02:48:03.759395 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ww7kcs The solar cycle and solar dynamo models: Past accomplishments, present status and a strategy for the 21st century 2016-07-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7ww7kcs Dikpati, Mausumi author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher We describe the primary observational features of solar cycles, as seen in the photosphere, and review progress made over the past sixty years to simulate and predict these features using magneto-hydrodynamic dynamo models. The focus is on the so-called Babcock-Leighton flux-transport (BLFT) dynamo models, calibrated for the Sun, which so far have been the most successful in simulation, and the only ones tested for prediction. The proposed 21st century strategy for progress emphasizes the need (a) to use modern data assimilation techniques, so successful for Earth's atmosphere simulation and prediction, to exploit all available solar observations, and (b) to generalize BLFT dynamo models to 3D to simulate and predict longitude-dependent cycle features. The 3D models must include (a) global HD and MHD instabilities in the solar tachocline, which probably create spatial patterns and time dependence that is reflected in surface observations, such as active longitudes, and (b) processes that capture the statistics and effects of emerging active regions that are tilted with respect to latitude circles, in order to accurately represent the surface source of poloidal fields, whose transport to the poles is responsible for polar field reversals. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2016 Anita Publications None eng geoscientificInformation