Identification

Title

A Statistical Investigation of the CESM Ensemble Consistency Testing Framework - Part II

Abstract

Weather is the archetype for chaotic dynamical system. As such, improvements, updates, and modifications to large scale climate simulation demand there be quality checks in place to ensure that new climate simulations are consistent in their reproduction of the real-world phenomena. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Ensemble Consistency Test (ECT) was constructed to fulfill this need. In short, the CESM-ECT uses a large ensemble of climate simulations produced from an established software version and trusted computational environment as a baseline to compare against new climate simulations produced from updated software and/or a new computational infrastructure. One shortcoming of the current version of CESM-ECT is its need for a large ensemble in order to produce accurate enough estimation for certain statistics. The current method uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and in previous work we demonstrate the limitations of this approach for reducing the necessary ensemble size. In this work, we propose an alternative method based on a hard thresholding estimate of the correlation matrix. We compare our new method to the previously established method by considering both the false positive rate and the power in our analysis. We are able to explain a remarkable and counterintuitive result concerning the effect of ensemble size on the power of the CESM-ECT by investigating the effects of ensemble size on the estimates of the eigenvalues of the corresponding sample correlation matrix.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7348qqk

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Keyword set

keyword value

Statistical applications

Coupled climate models

originating controlled vocabulary

title

reference date

date type

revision

effective date

2021-09-17

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2024-12-10T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

<style type="text/css"></style><span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata date

2025-07-10T19:55:51.479469

Metadata language