Identification

Title

Limited effect of future land‐use changes on human heat stress and labor capacity

Abstract

To achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement, rapid, sustained, and deep emission reductions are required, which often includes negative emissions through land‐based mitigation. However, the effects of future land‐use change on climate are often not considered when quantifying the climate‐induced impacts on human heat stress and labor capacity. By conducting simulations with three fully coupled Earth System Models, we project the effects of land‐use change on heat stress and outdoor labor capacity for two contrasting future land‐use scenarios under high‐ambition mitigation. Achieving a sustainable land‐use scenario with increasing global forest cover instead of an inequality scenario with decreasing forest cover in the Global South causes a global cooling ranging between 0.09°C and 0.35°C across the Earth System Models. However, the effects on human heat stress are less strong, especially over the regions of intense land‐use change such as the tropics, where biogeophysical effects on near‐surface specific humidity and wind speed counteract the cooling effect under warm extremes. The corresponding influence on outdoor labor capacity is small and inconsistent across the three Earth System Models. These results clearly highlight the importance of land‐use change scenarios for achieving global temperature targets while questioning the adaptation potential for reduction in heat stress.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7gq734d

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2025-01-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

<span style="font-family:Arial;font-size:10pt;font-style:normal;" data-sheets-root="1">Copyright author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.</span>

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact