Identification

Title

The idealized aquaplanet Maritime Continent barrier effect on the MJO predictability

Abstract

Studies have indicated exaggerated Maritime Continent (MC) barrier effect in simulations of the Madden- Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant source of subseasonal predictability in the tropics. This issue has plagued the model-ing and operational forecasting communities for decades, while the sensitivity of MC barrier on MJO predictability has not been addressed quantitatively. In this study, perfect-model ensemble forecasts are conducted with an aquaplanet configura-tion of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) in which both basic state and tropical modes of variability are reasonably simulated with a warm pool-like SST distribution. When water-covered terrain mimicking MC landmasses is added to the warm pool-like SST framework, the eastward propagation of the MJO is disturbed by the prescribed MC aqua-mountain. The MJO predictability estimate with the perfect-model experiment is about 6 weeks but reduces to about 4 weeks when the MJO is impeded by the MC aqua-mountain. Given that the recent operational forecasts show an average of 3-4 weeks of MJO prediction skill, we can conclude that improving the MJO propagation crossing the MC could im-prove the MJO skill to 5-6 weeks, close to the potential predictability found in this study (6 weeks). Therefore, more effort toward understanding and improving the MJO propagation is needed to enhance the MJO and MJO-related forecasts to improve the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7tx3kc0

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-09-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact