Identification

Title

Towards dynamical seasonal forecast of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic

Abstract

Extratropical transition can extend the threat of tropical cyclones into the midlatitudes and modify it through expansion of rainfall and wind fields. Despite the scientific and socioeconomic interest, the seasonal forecast of extratropical transition has received little attention. The GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) model (HiFLOR) shows skill in seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone frequency as well as major hurricanes. A July-initialized 12-member ensemble retrospective seasonal forecast experiment with HiFLOR in the North Atlantic is conducted, representing one of the very first attempts to predict the extratropical transition activity months in advance. HiFLOR exhibits retrospective skill in seasonal forecasts of basin-wide and regional ET activity relative to best track and reanalysis data. In contrast, the skill of HiFLOR in predictions of non-ET activity is limited. Future work targeted at improved predictions of non-ET storms provides a path for enhanced TC activity forecasting.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7sb48qz

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-11-28T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact