edu.ucar.opensky::articles:26249 UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact 2025-12-24T19:38:25.532782 ISO 19115-2 Geographic Information - Metadata - Part 2: Extensions for Imagery and Gridded Data ISO 19115-2:2009(E) https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7959nhn Innovations in winter storm forecasting and decision support services 2023-03-01T00:00:00Z publication https://n2t.org/ark:/85065/d7959nhn https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0065.1 Novak, D. R. author Perfater, S. E. author Demuth, Julie L. author Bieda, S. W. author Carbin, G. author Craven, J. author Erickson, M. J. author Jeglum, M. E. author Kastman, J. author Nelson, J. A. author Rudack, D. E. author Staudenmaier, M. J. author Waldstreicher, J. S. author UCAR/NCAR - Library publisher Winter storms are disruptive to society and the economy, and they often cause signifi-cant injuries and deaths. Innovations in winter storm forecasting have occurred across the value chain over the past two decades, from physical understanding, to observations, to model forecasts, to postprocessing, to forecaster knowledge and interpretation, to products and services, and ultimately to decision support. These innovations enable more accurate and consistent forecasts, which are increasingly being translated into actionable information for decision-makers. This paper reviews the current state of winter storm forecasting in the context of the U.S. National Weather Service operations and describes a potential future state. Given predictability limitations, a key challenge of winter storm forecasting has been characterizing uncertainty and communicating the forecast in ways that are understandable and useful to decision-makers. To address this challenge, particular focus is placed on establishing a probabilistic framework, with probabilistic hazard information serving as a foundation for winter storm decision support services. The framework is guided by social science research to ensure effective communication of risk to meet users' needs. Solutions to gaps impeding progress in winter storm forecasting are highlighted, including better understanding of mesoscale phenomenon, the need for better ensemble calibration, a rigorous and consistent database of observed impacts, and linking multiparameter probabilities (e.g., probability of intense snowfall rates at rush hour) with users' information needs and decisions. UCAR/NCAR - Library OpenSky Support PO Box 3000 Boulder CO 80307-3000 opensky@ucar.edu http://opensky.ucar.edu/ homepage pointOfContact PDF Text theme Resource Type 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z publication Copyright 2023 American Meteorological Society (AMS). None eng geoscientificInformation