Identification

Title

Future simulated changes in central U.S. Mesoscale convective system rainfall caused by changes in convective and stratiform structure

Abstract

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are responsible for a majority of warm season flash flood events in the central U.S. Given their high impact, it is critical to understand how MCSs will change in a future climate. This study identifies eight flood-producing MCS cases of different archetypes and runs ensembles of 192 high-resolution historical and future simulations in order to analyze the range in future MCS rainfall and structural changes. Future area-average rainfall increases by 98% on average, with an 89%-111% range among ensemble members, while maximum rainfall increases by 31%, with a 24%-43% range. MCSs components are classified into deep convective cores (DCCs), wide convective cores (WCCs), and broad stratiform regions (BSRs) to understand how changes in these structures contribute to future rainfall changes. In a warmer climate, the number of DCCs increase on average by +30 (+5,545%), the average WCC area increases by 75%, and the average BSR area increases by 40%. The future rainfall increases are mainly due to increases in convective rainfall with large variability in rainfall from DCCs and less variability from WCCs. Despite their increase in size, BSR rainfall shows little increase. These rainfall and structural changes vary among MCS types, with back-building MCSs exhibiting the largest increases in future rainfall mainly due to increases in the number of DCCs and WCC area. Such information is critical to better understand the drivers of change in future MCS rainfall and improve prediction of future flood impacts.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7988bzd

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2023-02-27T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact