Identification

Title

Analog ensemble methods for improving satellite-based intensity estimates of tropical cyclones

Abstract

Accurate, reliable estimates of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity are a crucial element in the warning and forecast process worldwide, and for the better part of 50 years, estimates made from geostationary satellite observations have been indispensable to forecasters for this purpose. One such method, the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT), was used to develop analog ensemble (AnEn) techniques that provide more precise estimates of TC intensity with instant access to information on the reliability of the estimate. The resulting methods, ADT-AnEn and ADT-based Error Analog Ensemble (ADTE-AnEn), were trained and tested using seventeen years of historical ADT intensity estimates using k-fold cross-validation with 10 folds. Using only two predictors, ADT-estimated current intensity (maximum wind speed) and TC center latitude, both AnEn techniques produced significant reductions in mean absolute error and bias for all TC intensity classes in the North Atlantic and for most intensity classes in the Eastern Pacific. The ADTE-AnEn performed better for extreme intensities in both basins (significantly so in the Eastern Pacific) and will be incorporated in the University of Wisconsin's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) workflow for further testing during operations in 2021.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7mg7sxt

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2021-06-28T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact