Identification

Title

Assessment of storm wind speed prediction using gridded Bayesian regression applied to historical events with NCAR's real‐time ensemble forecast system

Abstract

This study presents the development and application of gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new statistical postprocessing technique to improve deterministic numerical weather prediction of storm wind speed forecasts over the northeast United States. GBLR products are produced by interpolating regression coefficients deduced from modeled‐observed pairs of historical storms at meteorological stations to grid points, thus producing a gridded product. The GBLR model is developed for the 10 members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real‐time dynamic ensemble prediction system for a database composed of 92 storms, using leave‐one‐storm‐out cross validation. GBLR almost eliminates the bias of the raw deterministic prediction and achieves average coefficient of determination (R2) improvement of 36% and root‐mean‐square error reduction of 29% with respect to the ensemble mean for individual storm forecasts. Moreover, verification using leave‐one‐station‐out cross validation indicates that the GBLR model provides acceptable forecast improvements for grid points where no observations are available. The GBLR technique contributes to improving gridded storm wind speed forecasts using past event‐based data and has the potential to be implemented in real time.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7pn98rg

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-08-27T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact