Identification

Title

Simulated trends in ionosphere‐thermosphere climate due to predicted main magnetic field changes from 2015 to 2065

Abstract

The strength and structure of the Earth's magnetic field is gradually changing. During the next 50 years the dipole moment is predicted to decrease by 3.5%, with the South Atlantic Anomaly expanding, deepening, and continuing to move westward, while the magnetic dip poles move northwestward. We used simulations with the Thermosphere‐Ionosphere‐Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to study how predicted changes in the magnetic field will affect the climate of the thermosphere‐ionosphere system from 2015 to 2065. The global mean neutral density in the thermosphere is expected to increase slightly, by up to 1% on average or up to 2% during geomagnetically disturbed conditions. This is due to an increase in Joule heating power, mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. Global mean changes in total electron content (TEC) range from 3% to +4%, depending on season and UT. However, regional changes can be much larger, up to about 35% in the region of 45°S to 45°N and 110°W to 0°W during daytime. Changes in the vertical drift are the most important driver of changes in TEC, although other plasma transport processes also play a role. A reduction in the low‐latitude upward drift weakens the equatorial ionization anomaly in the longitude sector of 60°W, manifesting itself as a local increase in electron density over Jicamarca (12.0°S, 76.9°W). The predicted increase in neutral density associated with main magnetic field changes is very small compared to observed trends and other trend drivers, but the predicted changes in TEC could make a significant contribution to observationally detectable trends.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7cz3bbz

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2020-03-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact