Identification

Title

Trends of extreme US weather events in the changing climate

Abstract

Trends in extreme 100-y events of temperature and rainfall amounts in the continental United States are estimated, to see effects of climate change. This is a nontrivial statistical problem because climate change effects have to be extracted from "noisy" weather data within a limited time range. We use nonparametric Bayesian methods to estimate the trends of extreme events that have occurred between 1979 and 2019,based on data for temperature and rainfall. We focus on 100-y events for each month in1◦×1◦geographical areas looking at hourly temperature and 5-d cumulative rainfall. Distribution tail models are constructed using extreme value theory (EVT) and data on 33-y events. This work shows it is possible to aggregate data from spatial points in diverse climate zones for a given month and fit an EVT model with the same parameters. This surprising result means there are enough extreme event data to see the trends in the41-y record for each calendar month. The yearly trends of the risk of a 100-y high-temperature event show an average 2.1-fold increase over the last 41 y of data across all months, with a 2.6-fold increase for the months of July through October. The risk of high rainfall extremes increases in December and January 1.4-fold, but declines by 22%for the spring and summer months.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7j38xmd

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2022-11-22T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact