Identification

Title

2017 Atlantic hurricane forecasts from a high-resolution version of the GFDL fvGFS model: Evaluation of track, intensity, and structure

Abstract

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season had several high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), including multiple cases of rapid intensification (RI). A high-resolution nested version of the GFDL finite-volume dynamical core (FV3) with GFS physics (fvGFS) model (HifvGFS) was used to conduct hindcasts of all Atlantic TCs between 7 August and 15 October. HifvGFS showed promising track forecast performance, with similar error patterns and skill compared to the operational GFS and HWRF models. Some of the larger track forecast errors were associated with the erratic tracks of TCs Jose and Lee. A case study of Hurricane Maria found that although the track forecasts were generally skillful, a right-of-track bias was noted in some cases associated with initialization and prediction of ridging north of the storm. The intensity forecasts showed large improvement over the GFS and global fvGFS models but were somewhat less skillful than HWRF. The largest negative intensity forecast errors were associated with the RI of TCs Irma, Lee, and Maria, while the largest positive errors were found with recurving cases that were generally weakening. The structure forecasts were also compared with observations, and HifvGFS was found to generally have wind radii larger than the observations. Detailed examination of the forecasts of Hurricanes Harvey and Maria showed that HifvGFS was able to predict the structural evolution leading to RI in some cases but was not as skillful with other RI cases. One case study of Maria suggested that the inclusion of ocean coupling could significantly reduce the positive bias seen during and after recurvature.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d76m39sc

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2018-10-01T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact