Identification

Title

Dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity: Robust assessment of prediction skill and predictability

Abstract

Improving the seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity demands a robust analysis of the prediction skill and the inherent predictability of TC activity. Using the resampling technique, this study analyzes a state-of-the-art prediction system and offers a robust assessment of when and where the seasonal prediction of TC activity is skillful. We found that uncertainties of initial conditions affect the predictions and the skill evaluation significantly. The sensitivity of predictions to initial conditions also suggests that landfall and high-latitude activity are inherently harder to predict. The lower predictability is consistent with the relatively low prediction skill in these regions. Additionally, the lower predictability is largely related to the atmospheric environment rather than the sea surface temperature, at least for the predictions initialized shortly before the hurricane season. These findings suggest the potential for improving the seasonal TC prediction and will help the development of the next-generation prediction systems.

Resource type

document

Resource locator

Unique resource identifier

code

http://n2t.net/ark:/85065/d7x63p91

codeSpace

Dataset language

eng

Spatial reference system

code identifying the spatial reference system

Classification of spatial data and services

Topic category

geoscientificInformation

Keywords

Keyword set

keyword value

Text

originating controlled vocabulary

title

Resource Type

reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2016-01-01T00:00:00Z

Geographic location

West bounding longitude

East bounding longitude

North bounding latitude

South bounding latitude

Temporal reference

Temporal extent

Begin position

End position

Dataset reference date

date type

publication

effective date

2019-05-28T00:00:00Z

Frequency of update

Quality and validity

Lineage

Conformity

Data format

name of format

version of format

Constraints related to access and use

Constraint set

Use constraints

Limitations on public access

None

Responsible organisations

Responsible party

contact position

OpenSky Support

organisation name

UCAR/NCAR - Library

full postal address

PO Box 3000

Boulder

80307-3000

email address

opensky@ucar.edu

web address

http://opensky.ucar.edu/

name: homepage

responsible party role

pointOfContact

Metadata on metadata

Metadata point of contact